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It looks like the Ukrainians are breaking out

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  • It looks like the Ukrainians are breaking out

    I follow a web page of lefties who love NATO, hate Putin, and are obsessive about the war in Ukraine. I guess what was supposed to be a very slow and limited offensive operation is actually across all areas. When they find little opposition they advance as quickly as logistics can keep up. Most of the info comes from translations of various posters to Telegram, which is the only remaining social media site in Russia. There are other people who geolocate any photos of videos they can find. Despite the source being Russian, and containing plenty of propaganda, when they mention actual names of towns, that can be located on a map, it's possible to figure out who is advancing where.

    You have to remember also that the US is giving as much technical assistance as possible, and we have a lot of experience with wars. I'd think the US is very good not only at providing intelligence as to Russian strength and locations of supplies etc, but also at keeping track of how much supplies the Ukrainians have and moving enough forward in a timely fashion.

    Kerson, a large city in the south was where Ukraine stated they were going to attack, and Russia moved a lot of people there, but there are huge problems of geography that seem insurmountable for the Russians. The bridges are out, their airforce is grounded for fear of losing aircraft, and they are hit with pinpoint accuracy from long range US supplied artillery. There is the potential for large numbers of Russian POWs.

    There is a news blackout from the Ukrainians for everything related to the offensive. A quick look at the NYT, Wapo, Reuters, and the AP yields absolutely nothing. So all this is hearsay. Except I don't think so. I tend to think the market often reflect the war. If Ukraine took so much territory back that it forced a Russian withdrawal or a coup, there's a good chance trade would resume, gas would flow to Europe, and a Eruo recession would be avoided.

    Just as a by the way, there are other lefties called Tankies that love anything communist or former communist and hate the USA even when American is doing good. They should move to Russia.

  • #2
    Rock -
    Good post.

    Comment


    • #3
      I'm starting to read bits and pieces in the regular press, mostly about things that have happened days ago. It sounds as if because Russia moved many of it's troops to the south, they left a lot of the east undefended and Ukraine forces made an advance through a lightly defended front and are now past the front lines thirty or forty kilometers.

      The Ukrainians are after the city of Kupiansk (Kupyansk) which is a logistical hub and the center of all the train lines headed south to supply their forces in eastern Ukraine. Reaching the outskirts of Kupyansk puts the large numbers of Russians in Izyum isolated, without supplies, and in danger of a disaster. Ukraine has been bypassing lightly defended towns, but Kupyansk will be contested I'd think.

      It seems as if Ukraine is attacking on two or three major fronts. Kherson in the south was obvious, the Ukrainians said they would, and Russia knew they would, and Russia moved in lots of troops and lots of supplies and especially mines. Progress is slow but there is the obvious geography. In the east south of the large Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, which Russia never did capture, is where progress is rapid. Ukrainians are capturing and destroying rocket launchers that have a long range and are usually far back from any front lines.

      A quick look showed this now being reported by CNN/NBC, here's a link to Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ty-2022-09-07/ They are only quoting what Ukraine is officially saying, and Ukraine usually only makes claims about things that have happened a while ago.

      Ukraine has good control over what it's soldiers send back to friends and relatives via text and video, Russia has very little. So when some Russian soldier sends back a vid of them being attacked even without place names people who follow such things can figure out where it is.

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      • #4
        It looks like Ukraine had more motorized infantry ready to go. Vids show tanks and APCs on the side of the road waiting for resupply/refueling while being passed through by another mechanized group. The thin breakout has been greatly widened and it looks like Kupyansk was being contested earlier today as Ukrainian forces extend down from Kupyansk cutting off Izium and large portions of Donetsk province. I guess 10,000 Russian troops are trapped.

        In the south Ukraine has made very slow progress but progress, it's where Russia sent all it's infantry.

        Russia's air force seems AWOL.

        Good vid of an American gunner in an up armored Humvee driven by Ukrainians in the attack on the town before Kupyansk, I forget the name. The American is speaking mostly Ukrainian, but slips into southern accented American. He's shooting a 50 as well as those one shot anti armor rockets and they are taking lots of small arms from a treeline and house and outbuilding. They drive up close and then the infantry gets out. Bullet proof window on the Humvee, you can hear the small arms hitting the Humvee and an RPG that misses them.

        A turning point in the war and news coverage seems to be Queens death, Trump, midterms.

        Putin called a meeting of the security council. Trying to get peace talks going.

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        • #5
          It sounds as if Izyum has fallen and the Russian commander negotiated the surrender to save the lives of his troops, not sure how many of the ten thousand made it out. I sure hope Ukraine has plans on how to handle thousands of POWs.

          Kupyansk had vids of Ukraine forces in city center.

          Some very foolish Russian politicians have asked Putin to resign. I'd stay away from windows if I were them.

          It's impossible to tell what's up with Russian reinforcements. The Russian govt shows vids of columns that are vids of another time and place, pro Ukraine rumor mills say this or that fantastical thing. I discount all of them. I do know Russia had recruited a few tens of thousands by accepting the old and out of shape with only a couple of weeks training.

          All maps are out of date, it's just a question of how much.

          Western media is starting to report on the story but I don't think they have many reporters that have been following it, too busy reporting on fake racism claims at some Utah university.

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          • #6
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            No word from Tucker Carlson who said 11 days ago that Putin was winning this war.
            https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2155498.html
            I don't understand how anyone could like Putin unless they like dictators. Putin might be intelligent, he's also stupid. Putin dreamed of a Russian empire, retaking Poland and the Baltic republics as well as Uzbekistan. In 2022.

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            • #7
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              The joke is because Ukraine just doesn't know what has been liberated. The Russians are in a bigger hurry to get out than the Ukrainians are to liberate. Kharkiv Province is gone by Russia's own admission. They are just trying to keep from getting captured and maybe save some equipment.

              I think the current fighting is Ukraine trying to blow up all the mechanized equipment of the retreating Russians and the Russians trying to protect themselves while skeddadling.

              There've been vids of a large burly lieutenant colonel getting roughly rolled onto his face while being searched for weapons and it turns out he might be a lieutenant general who borrowed a shirt. He doesn't speak.

              Luhansk Province just below Kharkiv has few roads and few villages and it's not known if Russia will even contest it, they took it in 14 but couldn't hold it. Also Putin's days might be numbered. He's the one who pushed this invasion.

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              • #8
                The Russian army losing so badly that Putin is at risk of losing the support of the Republican Party.

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                • #9
                  I thought the abandonment of fossil fuels that Brandon initiated was what enriched and emboldened Russia. That and the famous failure of European Countries to fund their own self defense screwed them. Their abandonment of producing fossil fuels combined with their reliance on Russia was amazingly dumb. Brandon, of course, is imitating Europe foolish choices. Our military is failing as it becomes insanely woke and anti normal. Republicans are for doing anti-Russian Policies, while Democrats throw money and woke phrases at the issue.

                  Let's GO Brandon!!!!

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                  • #10
                    Yup. That's what you thought Lab. That's what you get for watching propaganda TV and nutty web sites like Town Hall and Red State. Next thing you know you think KGB agents that start wars are just nifty.

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                    • #11
                      You should visit a chiropractor and see if he can seat your brain properly in your skull. All the ANTIFA crap you believe is messing you up. Republicans are the guys who are trying to get the government off your back. Democrats are the ones adding the IRS agents to audit you. Democrats are the ones who want to take your guns, your trucks, tell the temperature you can have your house, and when or if you can turn your lights on. They will tell you when and what you can say, they will tell you what you can hear, and they will tell you what to eat and when to eat it. They will tell you to inject this and that into your body because they know what is best for you. They make the rules for you, and they do as they please. Democrats say what and when you may do what they tell you. Meanwhile, John Kerry will jet around, Hunter will party his ass off doing what he damn well pleases, and you will obey the Ministry of TRUTH, Admiral Dr Racheal Levine, Sam Brinton and the new monkey pox expert Demetre Daskalaskis.

                      Let's GO Brandon!!!!!!!

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                      • #12
                        Save your breath.
                        All the mud-slinging in the world is not going to save us in November.

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                        • #13
                          You ain't us Snowhole.

                          Let's GO Brandon!!!

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                          • #14
                            So uhm, Lab, who are you rooting for in Ukraine? Putin or Ukraine? Tucker and Trump say Putin. Who do you say?

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by rock rat View Post
                              So uhm, Lab, who are you rooting for in Ukraine? Putin or Ukraine? Tucker and Trump say Putin. Who do you say?
                              Come RR , it’s not hard to understand who side Labs on and it’s irrelevant to what’s going on in the Ukraine. More importantly guys like Tucker and Donald would be irrelevant if it were not for the poor performance of the people we put in office ! No one is to blame for those guys but our electorate and the press moguls who perpetrate the fraud . All you need to see is our President damning half the people in this country in front of the birthplace of this republic and if that isn’t a wake up call then there is no hope !

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