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  • #46
    Originally posted by fitch270 View Post

    Buckshott, I'm not following this as close as you but the news seems to be talking about a spike in cases more than deaths. Would you think that's demographics or is it possible this thing is weakening. I read somewhere along the line that was a possibility but it doesn't get much attention.

    I actually checked before posting, came up with this.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...c93_story.html
    Yeah, that specifically falls into the Severity of Cases issues. I mean, yeah, cases will predate deaths, (lol I'm not trying to be sarcastic, it's hard to convey that in just text). It's just reducing the number of cases reduces reduces the number of potential vectors, levels out the strain on our intervention methods. People have to get sick, and unlike earlier in this pandemic people are now more aware and are checking to see if they have this specifically.

    Another possibility is that by being out in the sunlight, people are receiving a slightly attenuated version or possibly the smallest minimal infectious dose. So far as I know, no has yet determined the minimal infectious dose. I know some researchers have put the number ~1000 but it could be lower. It could be that we're seeing an odd form of aerosol inhalation inoculation. That would likely show up as positive case, especially when the tests we have are so faulty.

    IMEH thinks a number of states have not reached their peaks, and won't until late Sept. So all of the political wrangling gets grating.

    Again, if I were a betting man (I'm not) I would bet that what we're seeing is more closely related to lack of adherence (compliance) to good anti-contagion practices. People get tired of social distancing so they go to large parties, rallies, parades, etc. They get tired of wearing masks, get forgetful about washing hands.
    On a whole, Humans kind of suck at following medical orders. Once the acute issue is relieved, they cease to continue on the regimen. Happens for all kinds of things, have seen it for people losing their vision, limbs, sadly for a lot of CHF patients, death.

    Humans are social animals and we need contact and interaction. I'd just suggest everyone remember to take precautions while doing so.

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by rock rat View Post
      Thanks Buckshot for getting things back on track.

      I'd pretty much stopped following the issue, (and all issues to be truthful, hard work at elevation, lots of steep hills, hot weather and heavy materials) It doesn't look good when I click on individual states. CA for instance just shows a steady increase on the graph but then when I click it's over 5K new cases a day, lots of states over a thousand. Here we had something like 15% in the hospital when things were bad.

      I heard some states that used to have high infections were thinking of rejecting travelers either from or returning from states with high infections. Also yesterday the CDC said they figured maybe a 10% undetected infection rate as indicated via antibodies. A long long way from herd immunity, I figure it would vary by location also. Also a big city is able to absorb fifty or a hundred hospitalizations, our small counties would be caring for people in school rooms with veterinarians if it came to that.

      What I'd really like to see are numbers on things very hard to measure. How much less likely are youth to catch the disease at all? How does infectiousness vary amongst individuals? Why hasn't there been a big spike from demonstrations?

      I'd look at suicide rates before jumping to conclusions. Typically they decrease during economic downturns. No one has been forced into solitary, even at the height of distancing people could go out and stroll around, even talk to anyone they like. The only hardship is bars, restaurants, and shopping, none of which should be a hardship, it's only a reduction in consumerism, a good thing in my book. Oh, and people who defined themselves by work had to find new ways to use their time, another good thing.
      Well hopefully the link I shared will shed some light on this for you. The Johns Hopkins link show the 3-day trend from state to state, I will look to see if I can find a 2wk or a 4wk model. CA did have a peak but I'm thinking it might be trending down again.

      As you've said I'm wondering how much of that is geographical influence. Considering how severe the spike is in AZ and the recent trend in TX I wonder if it's still just the natural progression of this thing from high population to rural.

      As for suicides, the numbers I was referring to were on top of the typical rate. Unfortunately the loss of employment and the social isolation go hand in hand with suicide and the models I've seen were looking at something like a 3% to 6% increase or 700-1800 additional deaths (IIRC).

      I'd like a lot more information myself, but everyone's got to keep hanging in there!

      As Reverend Schuller once said "Tough times Never Last, but Tough People Do!"

      Comment


      • #48
        https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...-hospital-case

        Comment


        • #49
          Danbo- Didn't want to hijack your post, but much has been written about the uptick in chinese communist virus in Texas, especially by certain Canajans Without A Clue, and some people won't or can't open a link. No bad intentions, it was a very good post.
          crm


          Texas hospital CEO: COVID inpatient count 'misinterpreted,' level of alarm 'unwarranted'


          In Texas, focal point of national anxiety about a coronavirus 'second wave,' the state counts every COVID-positive hospital patient as a hospitalization for COVID itself, which may be exaggerating numbers.

          June 25, 2020 - 11:35pm

          Health officials in Texas are logging every single COVID-19-positive hospital patient in the state as a COVID-19 hospitalization, even if the patients themselves are admitted seeking treatment for something other than the coronavirus.

          That policy may be serving to artificially inflate what ostensibly seems like a significant COVID-19 surge in the state. Texas has lately been the focal point of national anxiety over concerns that a "second wave" of the coronavirus has begun there after the state began reopening nearly two months ago.

          COVID-19 hospitalizations there have been on a steady upward track for about the last two weeks, per
          the state's coronavirus dashboard, which on Thursday recorded about 4,400 coronavirus hospitalizations in the state. But at least part of that trend may be due to liberal coding policies by state officials.

          Lindsey Rosales, a spokeswoman for the Texas Department of State Health Services, confirmed to Just the News this week that the state is categorizing every inpatient in the state with a positive COVID-19 test as a COVID-19 hospitalization.

          "The number of hospitalized patients includes patients with a lab-confirmed case of COVID-19 even if the person is admitted to the hospital for a different reason," Rosales said.

          Asked if inpatients in the state are tested for COVID-19 whenever they arrive for treatment, Rosales said, "Hospitals set their own protocols for determining when and if to test patients for COVID-19."

          She said the state does not keep track of the patients hospitalized with the coronavirus versus those hospitalized specifically because of it.

          Texas Health Resources, one of the state's largest hospital systems,
          says on its website that its "patients [are] tested before most procedures." Elective surgeries and other medical procedures in Texas have gone up in recent weeks as the state has gradually re-opened following its lockdown.

          Amid worry, major hospital leaders stress calm

          Queries to multiple Texas hospital officials this week went unanswered. But leaders of several major hospitals in Houston this week urged the public to remain calm, suggesting that the extent of the outbreak has been overstated.

          At a virtual press conference on Thursday, the chief executives of Houston Methodist, Memorial Hermann Health System, St. Luke’s Health, and Texas Children’s hospitals stated that their hospitals are well-prepared to handle an even greater increase in patients than that which has emerged over the past few weeks.

          The number of hospitalizations are "being misinterpreted," said Houston Methodist CEO Marc Boom, "and, quite frankly, we’re concerned that there is a level of alarm in the community that is unwarranted right now."

          "We do have the capacity to care for many more patients, and have lots of fluidity and ability to manage," Boom said.

          He pointed out that his hospital one year ago was at 95% ICU capacity, similar to the numbers the hospital is seeing today. "It is completely normal for us to have ICU capacities that run in the 80s and 90s," he said. "That's how all hospitals operate."

          He noted that around 25% of ICU patients are COVID-19-positive. But the hospital "[has] many levers in our ability to adjust our ICU," he said, claiming that the hospital capacity regularly reported by the media is "base" capacity rather than surge capacity.

          Texas Children's Hospital CEO Mark Wallace added that his facility has "a lot of capacity."

          "We have the ability to take care of all of the Houstonians that need a critical care environment, that need to be operated on, or acute care," Wallace said.

          "There is not a scenario, in my opinion, where the demand for our beds ... would eclipse our capability," he continued. "I cannot imagine that. I just cannot."

          As of Thursday afternoon, Texas had around 13,000 open hospital beds statewide.

          Comment


          • #50
            Hard to believe a serious article downplaying the magnitude of the disease.
            And a hospital administrator saying he cannot imagine a scenario "where the demand for our beds would eclipse our capability."
            Texas has 13,000 open hospital beds statewide, and on Thursday recorded 4,400 coronavirus hospitalizations in the state.

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by crm3006 View Post
              Danbo- Didn't want to hijack your post, but much has been written about the uptick in chinese communist virus in Texas, especially by certain Canajans Without A Clue, and some people won't or can't open a link. No bad intentions, it was a very good post.
              crm


              Texas hospital CEO: COVID inpatient count 'misinterpreted,' level of alarm 'unwarranted'


              In Texas, focal point of national anxiety about a coronavirus 'second wave,' the state counts every COVID-positive hospital patient as a hospitalization for COVID itself, which may be exaggerating numbers.

              June 25, 2020 - 11:35pm

              Health officials in Texas are logging every single COVID-19-positive hospital patient in the state as a COVID-19 hospitalization, even if the patients themselves are admitted seeking treatment for something other than the coronavirus.

              That policy may be serving to artificially inflate what ostensibly seems like a significant COVID-19 surge in the state. Texas has lately been the focal point of national anxiety over concerns that a "second wave" of the coronavirus has begun there after the state began reopening nearly two months ago.

              COVID-19 hospitalizations there have been on a steady upward track for about the last two weeks, per
              the state's coronavirus dashboard, which on Thursday recorded about 4,400 coronavirus hospitalizations in the state. But at least part of that trend may be due to liberal coding policies by state officials.

              Lindsey Rosales, a spokeswoman for the Texas Department of State Health Services, confirmed to Just the News this week that the state is categorizing every inpatient in the state with a positive COVID-19 test as a COVID-19 hospitalization.

              "The number of hospitalized patients includes patients with a lab-confirmed case of COVID-19 even if the person is admitted to the hospital for a different reason," Rosales said.

              Asked if inpatients in the state are tested for COVID-19 whenever they arrive for treatment, Rosales said, "Hospitals set their own protocols for determining when and if to test patients for COVID-19."

              She said the state does not keep track of the patients hospitalized with the coronavirus versus those hospitalized specifically because of it.

              Texas Health Resources, one of the state's largest hospital systems,
              says on its website that its "patients [are] tested before most procedures." Elective surgeries and other medical procedures in Texas have gone up in recent weeks as the state has gradually re-opened following its lockdown.

              Amid worry, major hospital leaders stress calm

              Queries to multiple Texas hospital officials this week went unanswered. But leaders of several major hospitals in Houston this week urged the public to remain calm, suggesting that the extent of the outbreak has been overstated.

              At a virtual press conference on Thursday, the chief executives of Houston Methodist, Memorial Hermann Health System, St. Luke’s Health, and Texas Children’s hospitals stated that their hospitals are well-prepared to handle an even greater increase in patients than that which has emerged over the past few weeks.

              The number of hospitalizations are "being misinterpreted," said Houston Methodist CEO Marc Boom, "and, quite frankly, we’re concerned that there is a level of alarm in the community that is unwarranted right now."

              "We do have the capacity to care for many more patients, and have lots of fluidity and ability to manage," Boom said.

              He pointed out that his hospital one year ago was at 95% ICU capacity, similar to the numbers the hospital is seeing today. "It is completely normal for us to have ICU capacities that run in the 80s and 90s," he said. "That's how all hospitals operate."

              He noted that around 25% of ICU patients are COVID-19-positive. But the hospital "[has] many levers in our ability to adjust our ICU," he said, claiming that the hospital capacity regularly reported by the media is "base" capacity rather than surge capacity.

              Texas Children's Hospital CEO Mark Wallace added that his facility has "a lot of capacity."

              "We have the ability to take care of all of the Houstonians that need a critical care environment, that need to be operated on, or acute care," Wallace said.

              "There is not a scenario, in my opinion, where the demand for our beds ... would eclipse our capability," he continued. "I cannot imagine that. I just cannot."

              As of Thursday afternoon, Texas had around 13,000 open hospital beds statewide.
              Thanks for sharing it so everyone can see it.
              Last edited by Danbo; 06-26-2020, 05:59 PM.

              Comment


              • #52
                Originally posted by 99explorer View Post
                Hard to believe a serious article downplaying the magnitude of the disease.
                And a hospital administrator saying he cannot imagine a scenario "where the demand for our beds would eclipse our capability."
                Texas has 13,000 open hospital beds statewide, and on Thursday recorded 4,400 coronavirus hospitalizations in the state.
                Not all of them are sick with Kung flu.

                Comment


                • #53
                  It doesn't matter if they are taking up a bed.

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    If more ICU beds are ever needed they can always set up a MASH Hospital in the local park. The availability of personnel would be the problem.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Back in March, I thought the coronavirus would be dormant by the end of June, but yesterday, in a single day, we recorded 40,000 new cases in the USA.

                      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53191287
                      Last edited by 99explorer; 06-26-2020, 09:07 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        anyone in a hospital positive for covid has to be in the covid ward, otherwise they have a good chance of spreading virus. It takes a while for medical folks to get used to doing everything they need to to stay safe too. There's a whole dressing/undressing thing. Of the 550 approximate medical persons killed by the virus they figure more than 400 are work related.

                        One difference I hear a lot of times is that people who are coming in are younger and less prone to dying. When I look at the daily hospital admissions, or deaths averaged out over a week, I just don't see a skyrocketing increase like I do with the increasing number of infected people, which is real high. Of course when I look at new cases, this skyrocketing growth only began 2 weeks ago, we ought to know in another couple weeks if this is another NY but worse, or not. Of course if it's worse it might well have doubled, and doubled again.

                        I sure do wish my state would put up a travel ban. Masks are becoming just another thing you have to deal with in a day.
                        Last edited by rock rat; 06-26-2020, 09:37 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          My county has 17 total cases, 14 tested 3 suspected, no deaths. I'm driving to Bellingham Washington next week to catch the ferry to Ketchikan. It looks like its going to be a long strange trip. I hope no rioters are blocking the roads as I head west from Pa.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            The canary in the coal mine has died in two states, and counting.

                            https://news.yahoo.com/reversal-texa...151138132.html

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Originally posted by labrador12 View Post
                              My county has 17 total cases, 14 tested 3 suspected, no deaths. I'm driving to Bellingham Washington next week to catch the ferry to Ketchikan. It looks like its going to be a long strange trip. I hope no rioters are blocking the roads as I head west from Pa.
                              I've been following what is going on in your county. I'd think it might stay pretty low as long as they don't have really bad luck.

                              Good luck on your trip, to say I'm envious is an understatement. I too would worry about civil unrest in the cities you pass through. I don't know where to go to get up to the minute info, I'd guess taking the round about route of large cities would help. 90 has Chicago, and the south side of that town is the bad part. I used to take 80 for a long ways. Some of those NW cities are nuts these days too. Portland and Seattle. They forgo the protesting and get straight to the rioting.

                              Stay safe.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Originally posted by rock rat View Post

                                I've been following what is going on in your county. I'd think it might stay pretty low as long as they don't have really bad luck.

                                Good luck on your trip, to say I'm envious is an understatement. I too would worry about civil unrest in the cities you pass through. I don't know where to go to get up to the minute info, I'd guess taking the round about route of large cities would help. 90 has Chicago, and the south side of that town is the bad part. I used to take 80 for a long ways. Some of those NW cities are nuts these days too. Portland and Seattle. They forgo the protesting and get straight to the rioting.

                                Stay safe.
                                I don't plan on hanging around with large groups of strangers and rioting and smoking dope with them. I suspect that that will help me to stay safe. The crazies on the road might be a little tougher to dodge.

                                Comment

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