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  • Originally posted by Danbo View Post

    Fb the virus is real the panic is about removing Trump from office.
    I've always contended the "panic" was the hoax, not the disease.
    People have died from the seasonal flu, this is no worse ... other than a liberal way to damage Trump and spread a liberal agenda.

    Comment


    • on a good year, 12,000 people die from the flu, 120,000 are hospitalized from it, and 1.2M will be sick enough to have symptoms, maybe call into work etc.

      on a bad year ~65,000 people will die from the flu, ~800,000 will be hospitalized, and 45M will be sick enough to show symptoms.

      To date and to the best of my knowledge. We've had 132,000 Covid deaths, ~1.3M-1.4M hospitalizations, and ~3M confirmed cases.

      So, it's probably safe to assume that a lot of cases are going unreported or are only mildly symptomatic. I have to explain to people constantly that I'm not sick dogwood and cottonwood pollen messes with my allergies.

      Pretty soon I'm going to have to revisit my estimations where I thought this would be equivalent to a double extra bad flu year. While practicing civil disobedience in running my still to produce ethanol for hand sanitizer for me and my neighbors, I did some mental math to keep my brain busy while my hands worked. I had estimated 170,000 deaths seems like I was underestimating. An easy estimation was the Hong Kong Flu Deaths, multiplied by the population growth in the US which would put us around 164,000-165,000.

      Seems like this is a bit worse, or possibly there's some count errors going on either then or now. But feel free to call me out on my SWAG.

      I'm a little perturbed at how much the media makes of "spikes" these are not true spikes, these are waves / oscillations during a seasonal lull. The overall trend has been declining for 2 months.

      Even so, to me personally, the most concerning is not that if these trends continue, they could signal a problem and potential shortage of beds, it's that most of these new cases are happening to younger folks. With this recent surge, I believe the avg age of infection dropped something like 15yrs.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Buckshott00 View Post

        Even so, to me personally, the most concerning is not that if these trends continue, they could signal a problem and potential shortage of beds, it's that most of these new cases are happening to younger folks. With this recent surge, I believe the avg age of infection dropped something like 15yrs.
        Could simply be that older folks aren't mingling as much and are more careful when they do.


        Anyone caught the new strain of swine flu and bubonic plague reports out of China?

        https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/w...china-pig.html

        https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...rt/5382389002/

        Comment


        • [QUOTE=99explorer;n738055]Sen. Chuck Grassley will not be attending the GOP convention now scheduled to be held in Jacksonville, Florida.

          https://news.yahoo.com/sen-chuck-gra...190850803.html

          Florida has seen a dramatic uptick in coronavirus cases over the last month, going from 667 new cases on June 1 to more than 10,000 new cases on Monday.[/QUOTE


          Why don't you lead with the number of fatalities in Florida.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by fitch270 View Post

            Could simply be that older folks aren't mingling as much and are more careful when they do.


            Anyone caught the new strain of swine flu and bubonic plague reports out of China?

            https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/w...china-pig.html

            https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...rt/5382389002/
            Those are both a little bit sensationalist. I'll explain:

            The US gets on avg. about 7-10 plague cases every year mostly from farmers and ranch hands in the West and Southwest dealing with Prairie dogs (do your part, red mist the suckers). On a bad year it could be up to 20, but I think the record is 17 IIRC.

            With modern antibiotics, death rate for the worst form is around 10% (better if they get them into you right away), but with modern hygiene most people will never have to worry about it. I know it seems a bit weird to say but it's primary vector is still rodents, that means farmers, ranchers, grange hands etc. It's not a bad idea to keep a good mousing terrier or a couple of barn cats around.

            A new variation of H1N1 (The Swine Flu) is a bit more concerning, and I'm a little alarmed my various news alerts and science journals haven't pinged on it yet. But given my journal alerts this could also just mean that NYTimes is making mountains out of molehills.

            There are lots of strains of H1N1 that are endemic to pigs and to humans respectively that are basically just a common flu. We have to worry when they mutate and gain function like H1N1pdm09 did in 2009. However, since lots of have had the flu, many of us already have antibodies for H1N1 or near strains of it. Farmers trading it back and forth between themselves and the pigs is bad news but the presence of antibodies alone I don't think is major cause for concern. We should be concerned if the family and friends of those people start showing symptoms and antibodies because it will mean that the virus is mutating to become efficiently / easily transmittable between other humans. I did not see anything about that in the article.

            We had a small outbreak of on the West Coast in 2009, that we generally forget about, because it was like have an extra dose of the flu floating around.
            I think the burden numbers were ~12K deaths (this was alarming because it mostly affected kids to middle aged adults and not ppl aged 65+) 274,000 hospitalizations, and ~65M cases.

            The total caseload is a bit debatable given the methods used 10yrs ago and distinguishing it from other H1N1 Strains. If anyone's interested in the range, I can show the full numbers but in general those are the numbers throw out. The death rate was about 0.03% That's not a decimal error.

            Another factor for H1N1 is it is generally a short incubation period, which means if you get sick you get sick so quickly you don't have a chance to go spreading it around, and can take precautions for others. I think it was only like 1-4 days.

            The anecdotal evidence I've heard from middle aged guys that had it was they got like the worst case of flu they ever remembered having, and the worst symptoms were a persistent cough, and for some of them they got "The Swirls" which is a fun way of saying it was coming out of both ends at the same time. 😅

            Comment


            • Sorry Buckshott, didn’t mean to sound an alarm. I’d avoided the news having a 3 day holiday weekend and the guys were talking about it back at work this morning. General attitude was that it was more fear mongering.

              Comment


              • fitch270 wrote:

                "... General attitude was that it was more fear mongering. ..."

                Lots of that "mongering" horse hockey going on these days!
                There's three "mongerers" around here! LOL!

                Comment


                • And the others are in denial.

                  Comment


                  • honk the phony writes: "Crm, all you can do is sling the cyber-bullying name-calling stuff. I see they just convicted a bunch of teenage girls of instigating a name-calling cyber attack on another kid that resulted in her being assaulted with boiling water in........."
                    honk the phony, you have called me a game hog, disparaged my military service, accused me of politicking for promotions in the military, called me a great fire ant hunter, and thrown numerous personal insults my way. And, I have decided you are a phony, that there are too many gaps in the knowledge you display as the mighty honk, great hunter, and we all know that you claim at least forty three careers and professions. So.....if you get your little Canajan feelings hurt from what you consider cyber bullying, just know what you have thrown out is being returned. I may even start calling you honk the whiny-baby phony.
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                    • Originally posted by fitch270 View Post
                      Sorry Buckshott, didn’t mean to sound an alarm. I’d avoided the news having a 3 day holiday weekend and the guys were talking about it back at work this morning. General attitude was that it was more fear mongering.
                      No worries! Forewarned is Forearmed. I like that we can talk about this, letting it fester in the dark is not how we combat this.

                      Comment


                      • Scientists in China appear to have used identical images across at least 121 medical research papers that were then published in international, peer-reviewed journals, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, raising questions about the checks on scientific research.

                        https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientist...121658711.html

                        It's a papermill, a whole bunch of fabricated data. Crooked as a cockroach's leg!!!

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Buckshott00 View Post
                          on a good year, 12,000 people die from the flu, 120,000 are hospitalized from it, and 1.2M will be sick enough to have symptoms, maybe call into work etc.

                          on a bad year ~65,000 people will die from the flu, ~800,000 will be hospitalized, and 45M will be sick enough to show symptoms.

                          To date and to the best of my knowledge. We've had 132,000 Covid deaths, ~1.3M-1.4M hospitalizations, and ~3M confirmed cases.

                          So, it's probably safe to assume that a lot of cases are going unreported or are only mildly symptomatic. I have to explain to people constantly that I'm not sick dogwood and cottonwood pollen messes with my allergies.

                          Pretty soon I'm going to have to revisit my estimations where I thought this would be equivalent to a double extra bad flu year. While practicing civil disobedience in running my still to produce ethanol for hand sanitizer for me and my neighbors, I did some mental math to keep my brain busy while my hands worked. I had estimated 170,000 deaths seems like I was underestimating. An easy estimation was the Hong Kong Flu Deaths, multiplied by the population growth in the US which would put us around 164,000-165,000.

                          Seems like this is a bit worse, or possibly there's some count errors going on either then or now. But feel free to call me out on my SWAG.

                          I'm a little perturbed at how much the media makes of "spikes" these are not true spikes, these are waves / oscillations during a seasonal lull. The overall trend has been declining for 2 months.

                          Even so, to me personally, the most concerning is not that if these trends continue, they could signal a problem and potential shortage of beds, it's that most of these new cases are happening to younger folks. With this recent surge, I believe the avg age of infection dropped something like 15yrs.
                          Was it the Swedes that protect their vulnerable people and let the children get the Covid. Now they say they are in much better shape than we are.

                          BTW, my hunting buddy had the swine flue in '09 and he said it was the worst 10 days of his life.

                          I know someone who gets the medical insider newsletter and word has it the antibodies a person does form are fleeting.

                          Comment


                          • It is extremely interesting how people can read the same information about something and can then come to completely differing opinions, views and ways of either using that information, or absolutely disregarding it ! If a person makes up his/her mind on a issue, there appears to be no way they will change it, no matter what the circumstances are ! Just reading posts on the virus situation, makes one wonder how such differing can take place, just who to believe and who not ! I have my own thoughts on the seriousness of the virus, there are points on either side I agree with, others not, but there is still nothing definite as to a 100% course of travel in prevention ! I truly wish all good luck in finding their own !!

                            Comment


                            • Dr. Fauci reports that things are not going well on containment of the COVID-19 virus, but progress on the vaccine development is being made.

                              https://news.yahoo.com/dr-fauci-coro...223227519.html

                              Comment


                              • From whiny 9- "Dr. Fauci reports that things are not going well on containment of the COVID-19 virus, but progress on the vaccine development is being made."

                                fauci has come out with contradictory information so many times he is no longer credible.

                                Comment

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